Research-Studie


Original-Research: KPS AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu KPS AG

Unternehmen: KPS AG
ISIN: DE000A1A6V48

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 13.00 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Internationalization is successfully continued. Margins slightly under
pressure due to earn-outs.

In the past financial year 2018/19, revenues increased by 4.9% to EUR
180.66 million (previous year: EUR 172.22 million). While revenues with the
largest customer declined, this effect was more than offset by new business
with existing and new customers. In particular, the acquisitions made
proved to be very successful and the share of sales outside Germany rose by
79.5% from EUR 42.9 million to EUR 77.0 million. This reflects the good
implementation of the internationalization strategy.

At the same time, a disproportionately high improvement in earnings was
achieved and EBITDA rose by 12.6% to EUR 22.55 million (previous year: EUR
20.02 million). The very good operating development of the acquisitions
made had a profit-minimizing effect due to agreed earn-out payments. A
further EUR 4.8 million in earn-outs were paid out. Adjusted for this
effect, EBITDA amounted to EUR 27.31 million, which corresponds to an
EBITDA margin of 15.1%. Thus, the high margins of the past would almost be
reached again.

In terms of the balance sheet, the company is still in an excellent
position with an equity ratio of 45.2% (30.09.2018: 46.5%) and net debt of
EUR 7.72 million (30.09.2018: EUR 12.12 million).

The first quarter of 2019/20 developed in line with the guidance and KPS is
showing a stable development. Revenues increased by 0.7% to EUR 44.7
million (previous year: EUR 44.4 million) and EBITDA fell by 10.4% to EUR
5.9 million (previous year: EUR 6.6 million), which corresponds to a
reduction in the EBITDA margin from 14.9% (Q1 18/19) to 13.2% (Q1 19/20).
This development is mainly due to the earn-out payments to ICE Consultants.

In the medium term, the three-pillar strategy should take effect and solid
sales growth should be achieved. This includes internationalization,
innovation and industrialization. Currently, there are still declining
sales with the largest customer, which limits sales growth. The guidance
therefore envisages conservative sales growth of 0.2% - 5.7% (EUR 181 - 191
million). The guidance includes the expectation that new projects can be
acquired in addition to the existing projects. In the context of the corona
crisis, we consider the acquisition of new projects to be difficult and
have issued a conservative forecast. However, the forecasts are subject to
a high degree of uncertainty due to the corona virus. We expect sales to
increase to EUR 181.84 million in the current financial year 2019/20, and
sales of EUR 190.93 million in the financial year 2020/21. We also expect a
slight improvement in margins, especially through the industrialisation of
the consulting approach, the focus on employee acquisition in countries
with lower wage levels and the increased use of our own employees instead
of freelancers. The earnings guidance is for EBITDA between EUR 28 to 36
million, but the first-time application of lease accounting in accordance
with IFRS 16 should result in a cash-neutral positive earnings effect of
EUR 3.80 million. Adjusted for the IFRS 16 effect, the guidance is EUR
24.20 to 32.20 million. We expect a slight improvement in earnings and
anticipate EBITDA of EUR 24.02 million in the current financial year
2019/20 and EUR 25.51 million in the financial year 2020/21.

Based on our DCF model, we have reduced our price target to EUR 13.00
(previously: EUR 13.20) and assign a Buy rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/20409.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstrasse 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
+++++++++++++++
Datum (Uhrzeit) Fertigstellung: 31.03.2020 (15:20 Uhr)
Datum (Uhrzeit) erste Weitergabe: 01.04.2020 (12:00 Uhr)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
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