Original-Research: The NAGA Group AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu The NAGA Group AG

Unternehmen: The NAGA Group AG
ISIN: DE000A161NR7

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 12.75 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2022
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker

Strong revenue and earnings growth in 2021; guidance for 2022 significantly
above our expectations; estimates and share price target raised

According to preliminary figures for the past financial year 2021, The NAGA
Group AG (short to: NAGA) achieved significant revenue growth as expected.
Compared to the previous year, consolidated sales more than doubled to EUR
55.3 million (previous year: EUR 24.35 million), thus exceeding both the
original guidance (sales guidance: EUR 50 - 52 million) and our sales
estimates (GBC forecast: EUR 54.06 million). The preliminary EBITDA of EUR
12.8 million (previous year: EUR 6.57 million) also showed a significant
increase. However, as the deliberate investments in customer growth led to
higher marketing expenses, the preliminary EBITDA was slightly below the
original EBITDA guidance (EUR 13 - 15 million) and below our estimate (GBC
forecast: EUR 14.39 million).

As expected, the company not only benefited from the favourable market
conditions for online brokers, but also from the implemented focus on the
core business and the expanded marketing activities contributed to the
success. Overall, the trading volume doubled from EUR 121 billion (2020) to
over EUR 250 million (2021) and the number of new customers increased
significantly to 277,000 (previous year: 122,000). On the product side, for
example, NAGA Pay was introduced to the market, which is intended to
integrate customers more strongly into the NAGA product world.

For the current financial year, the company has announced the introduction
of new products in addition to the planned continuation of international
expansion. In the first quarter of 2022, NAGAX, a new social trading
platform with a focus on cryptocurrencies, is to be introduced to the
market. According to its own information, every user contribution on the
platform will be automatically converted into an NFT, which can be
monetised. In addition, since the end of 2021, NAGA has been offering its
technology to selected partner companies as part of a white label solution
as a SaaS model. This is intended to generate further business.

The financing of further customer growth, possible strategic acquisitions
and further product development was significantly expanded by a financing
round in November 2021. With the issue of around 4.25 million shares at a
price of EUR 8.00, an additional EUR 34 million was raised. Growth capital
of EUR 22.7 million was already raised in September 2021 as part of a
capital increase.

On this basis, the company published guidance for the current 2022
financial year for the first time in November 2021. Group turnover of EUR
95 to 105 million and EBITDA of between EUR 25 and 30 million are expected.
Both figures are significantly above our previous forecast (see research
report dated 8 November 2021). We are adjusting our estimates in line with
the company's guidance and are thus significantly raising our revenue
estimate to EUR 96.78 million (previously: EUR 81.10 million) and our
EBITDA forecast to EUR 25.48 million (previously: EUR 16.99 million). Due
to this higher basis, we are also raising our 2023 estimates.

Within the framework of our DCF valuation model, this results in a new
target price of EUR 12.75 (previously: EUR 11.70), taking into account the
last capital increase. We continue to assign the BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

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Date (time) Completion: 18/01/22 (01:02 pm)
Date (time) first transmission: 19/01/22 (09:30 am)

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